Thursday, September 14, 2006

You know what I said in my previous post...

...about me being happy with the media reforms? Well, I have to admit I'm not too keen on all of them and I get the feeling I'll be even less happy as the government refuses to expend "political capital" getting them through in their initial form.

"In a perfect world, nobody would be excluded from anything. But that's not the way of the media world. Everyone is excluded from offering commercial free-to-air TV except the three incumbents. This is the last big pocket of protectionism in our economy and the Howard Government is not of a mind to remove it, at least until the move to digital is completed between 2012 and 2014, give or take a few years."

Of course, I've stated before that I don't believe that the future of media is TV, only smaller. If you don't package on-demand with mobility then it's just not enough to warrant the inevitable subscription cost.

"That will mean the status quo on ownership is maintained until after digital conversion. And by then we'll have full-time digital streaming of any kind of programming on demand via the internet, a technology that promises to render content regulation and the protection of licence holders irrelevant."

...and that doesn't take into account the lengthening of the Long Tail, the next generation of YouTubes, the inexorable approach of internet video on your teev, the "almost-dead-before-it-began" video podcast, and the "it's-only-a-matter-of-time-before-someone-finally-does-it" mobile media player with wi-fi connectivity, all likely well within the next 6 years.

Viva la Revolution!

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